李鑫助理研究员等《Digital transformation and supply chain risk: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms》在期刊《Economic Modelling》Volume 159，2026发表。研究利用百度ERNIE 4.5大语言模型，基于上市公司年报构建了企业层面的供应链风险指数，系统地评估了企业数字化转型对供应链风险的影响。
《Economic Modelling》是一本致力于推动经济建模理论和应用发展的经济学国际期刊（SSCI 1区）。
Digital transformation and supply chain risk: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms
Abstract：As trade protectionism rises and international conflicts intensify, the risk of supply chain disruption has increased significantly. There is great practical value in quantifying supply chain risk and developing effective strategies to manage it. This study uses the Baidu's ERNIE 4.5 large language model to construct a firm-level supply chain risk index based on listed companies' annual reports. It then systematically evaluates the impact of digital transformation on supply chain risk. The findings reveal that digital transformation effectively reduces supply chain risk by enabling firms to search for high-quality partners and optimize supply-demand matching. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the risk-mitigating effect of digital transformation is stronger in cities with more advanced digital infrastructure, industries facing higher competitive pressure, and firms with higher network centrality or greater export dependence. This study provides empirical evidence and practical guidance for accelerating digital transformation and building a secure supply chain system.
摘要：随着贸易保护主义抬头与国际冲突加剧，供应链中断风险显著上升。量化测度供应链风险并制定有效的应对策略，具有重要的现实价值。本研究运用百度文心一言大模型，基于上市公司年报构建了企业层面的供应链风险指数，系统评估了数字化转型对供应链风险的影响。研究结果表明，数字化转型通过帮助企业搜寻优质合作伙伴、优化供需匹配，有效降低了供应链风险。异质性分析显示，在数字基础设施更发达的城市、面临更高竞争压力的行业，以及网络中心度更高或出口依赖度更强的企业中，数字化转型的风险缓解效应更为显著。本研究为加快推进数字化转型、构建安全可靠的供应链体系提供了经验证据与实践启示。
Keywords: Digital transformation Supply chain risk Supply chain layout Supply chain matching
引用格式：Li X, Yang Z, Yu D. Digital Transformation and Supply Chain Risk: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms[J]. Economic Modelling, 2026: 107577.
来源：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107577
