The impact of lockdown in Wuhan on residents’confidence in ontrolling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities
Abstract:Objective From January 23rd, 2020, lock-down measures were adopted in Wuhan, China to stop the spread of COVID-19. However, due to the approach of the Spring Festival and the nature of COVID-19, more than 6 million permanent and temporary residents of Wuhan (who were potential carriers or spreaders of the virus), left the city before the lock-down measures were implemented. This study aims to explore whether and how the population inflow from Wuhan city impacted residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks at the destination cities. Study design and setting Based on questionnaire data and migration big data, a multiple regression model was developed to quantify the impact of the population inflow from Wuhan city on the sense of confidence of residents in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities. Scenarios were considered that varied residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities, residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities, and the overall indicators for the sense of confidence of residents in controlling COVID-19. A marginal effect analysis was also conducted to calculate the probability of change in residents' confidence in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak with per unit change in the population inflow from Wuhan city. Results The impact of population inflow from Wuhan city on residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities was positive and significant at the 1% level, while that on residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 at the destination cities was negative and significant at the 1% level. Robustness checks, which included modifying the sample range and replacing measurement indicators of the population inflow from Wuhan city, demonstrated these findings were robust and credible. When the population inflow from Wuhan city increased by one additional unit, the probabilities of the variables “February” and “March” decreased significantly by 0.1023 and 0.1602, respectively, while the probabilities of “April,” “May,” “June,” “July,” “before the end of 2020,” and “unknown” significantly increased by 0.0470, 0.0856, 0.0333, 0.0080, 0.0046, and 0.0840, respectively. Similarly, when the population inflow from Wuhan city increased by one additional unit, the probability of the variable “extremely confident” decreased by 0.1973. Furthermore, the probabilities of the variables “confident,” “neutral,” and “unconfident” significantly increased by 0.1392, 0.0224, and 0.0320, respectively. Conclusion The population inflow from Wuhan city played a negative role in the sense of confidence of residents in controlling COVID-19 in the destination cities. The higher the population inflow from Wuhan city, the longer the residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities became, and the weaker the residents' confidence in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities.
Keywords:Population Inflow; Controlling COVID-19; Destination Cities; China; Confidence
摘要：2020年COVID-19疫情发生之初，武汉就采取了严格的管控措施，试图控制疫情的爆发。2020年1月23日起，武汉进行了“封城”防控措施，全市城市公交、地铁、轮渡、长途客运都被暂停运营，机场、火车站离汉通道都被关闭。但由于恰逢春运，在武汉封城之前（2020年1月10日至1月24日），已有600多万武汉长期居住或短期停留人员流出武汉，成为潜在的病毒携带者与传播者。随着COVID-19携带者在城市和地区间流动，疫情也不断扩散和传播，对人们的日常生活和心理都造成了较为严重的影响。首先，文章设计和发布了《新冠肺炎疫情下社区与疫情认知的调查问卷》，通过线上的方式调查了全国范围内2020年2月10日至25日期间，各地居民对于COVID-19疫情以及社区防疫措施等方面的主观感知和判断。其次，文章还测算了2020年1月10日-1月24日每日从中国武汉流出的人口规模以及从武汉流出到各地的人口规模。最后，基于以上数据，文章得出了从武汉流出到其他城市的人口规模，对其他城市居民对于疫情控制信心具有显著负面影响的结论。同时，我们也考虑了不同类型居民对目的地城市控制新冠疫情爆发的预期月份、居民对控制目的地城市2019冠状病毒疾病爆发的信心，以及居民对控制2019冠状病毒疾病爆发信心的整体指标的异质性影响。
关键词：人口流动, COVID-19控制, 疫情控制的信心
来源：Frontiers in Public Health,Volume 10，2022.PP 902455-902455.
DOI：10.3389/fpubh.2022.902455
